“‘It may be a hundred years before a computer beats humans at Go — maybe even longer.” — New York Times, 1997
“Master of Go Board Game Is Walloped by Google Computer Program” — New York Times, 2016
Software development has gone through massive paradigm shifts over the past decade. Once limited to developers with years of study or access to expensive servers, web development has now become a trade where bootcamps crank out developers in a matter of weeks. We are rapidly approaching our next paradigm shift, which will be AI-based code generation. When we reach that inflection point, web development will have officially died, and the labor force is woefully unprepared.
Here are some of the paradigm shifts that have brought us to this point.
Shift 1: WordPress
WordPress launched on May 27th, 2003. Since its launch, the platform has continued to grow in popularity through rich plugins and themes that allow any non-technical entrepreneur to launch their own website without writing a single line of code. While the platform does have its limitations, it is still good enough for a staggering 26.5% of the entirety of the web. What about the other 74.5%? Enter shift 2.
Shift 2: Open source code, node, and frameworks
In addition to being able to write in the same language, there is an incredible community that rallies around and thrives off of open source contributions. The infrastructure and open source packages are very powerful, allowing developers to solve not just their own problems, but allowing them to build in a way that solves problems for the entire community. Building a software product with Node today is like playing with Lego blocks; you spend most of your time simply connecting them.
Shift 3: There’s an API for that. SAAS, BAAS, and other frameworks
Need to add some facial recognition to your new picture app? What if you want to interpret the emotions of people in a photo? There’s an API for that. Virtually anything you can think of now has a API (for all intensive non-technical purposes, another Lego brick).
What this means concretely is that any given software can now be easily created using open source tools or some application-specific APIs. If you gave a web developer two weeks and told them to clone any major consumer product, they could do a basic version using these tools. Seriously, anything.
Of course, this is not the same as building a company, but it’s an incredible increase in the marginal productivity of an individual developer. You don’t even need to write your own backend anymore. And it’s not because developers are any better than before, it’s because they are standing on the shoulders of giants.
Where we are now
Businesses are being built on an amazing selection of open source packages, robust development tools, and hybrid frameworks. They employ students who learned how to code in 12 weeks. It’s not a stretch to imagine that one day, anyone will be able to drag and drop whatever business idea they have to create a performant, scalable, and maintainable app.
There are already companies providing services that allow a non-developer to build a custom web app, from scratch, without a single line of code. Others are already using machine learning to build and design things for you. Although there are still customization tradeoffs, they will become marginal at best over time.
When anyone can build anything
Obviously not anyone will be able to build anything. For every 1,000 developers that use an open source package (a Lego brick) there will be one who built it. We need to be teaching how to build the Lego pieces. We need more engineers, not more stitchers. That doesn’t happen in 12 weeks, and it hardly happens in four years.
We need to encourage more web developers to level up their skill sets and learn more about AI, AR, VR, computer vision and machine learning. These are the skills of the future and they’re here today. Those who don’t see this and fail to retool over the next few years will be at risk of getting out of an expensive boot camp only to find themselves getting paid the same salary as the office manager.
The web is saturated. It’s a solved problem. Mobile is saturated too. For every app idea you have, there are three in the market, and four that were built but are eternally resting in the startup graveyard. We need to solve harder problems, and that takes skills beyond the toolbox of modern web developers.
Where to go from here
(Quote selections in the introduction are from Chris Dixon.)